Sunday, November 29, 2009

What are the odds that democratic primaries are already over? ie. Odds that the remaining are incons

What are the odds that democratic primaries are already over? ie. Odds that the remaining are inconsequential?



What are the odds that democratic primaries are already over? ie. Odds that the remaining are inconsequential?windows live messenger





Here's a fact. If Clinton loses in Texas or Ohio, or if it's even close say 55% 45% Obama. It's over...Everybody who crunched the numbers already knows it. She has to have an absolute landslide victory in both states. Based on the polling she's not going to have a landslide victory (or even a victory) in either state, so after March 4, for all intents and purposes it is over.



But, we do have to wait unitl March 4 because there is a chance (although slim) that she could see landslide victories in both Ohio and Texas. She can't win..



What are the odds that democratic primaries are already over? ie. Odds that the remaining are inconsequential?microsoft money internet explorer



The remaining what?
Right now the odds that the democratic primaries are over is 0. As it stands now it is almost impossible for either candidate to get to the required number of delegates necessary to win the party nomination. The Democratic primary process is responsible for this. First they apportion delegates based on the percent of vote received by a candidate in a particular state; so even if Hillary or Obama lose a state they will still pick up delegates and, as it stands now, the vote seems to always be (with a few exceptions) within 5% of each other. Second the party put in place the so called super delegates. These delegates are not bound by any voting what-so-ever and can decide who they want to vote for on their own. As a result these delegates will decide who the candidate is. Needless to say there will be much arm twisting if they get all the way to the convention. However, if Hillary loses Texas or Ohio she may decide to leave the race in which case Obama will be the candidate.

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